Carbon fiber (CF) is a material that has been widely used in various industries, including aerospace, medical, energy, and defense. However, the global supply chain of CF is in flux and rapidly changing, and demand for CF is expected to rise in the next five years. In this article, we will explore the outlook for Carbon fiber supply and demand and the potential for a CF shortfall in the coming years.
The Current State of Carbon Fiber (CF) Supply
The current supply of CF is uncertain, and the Chinese manufacturing environment has complicated the situation. According to Tony Roberts and Dan Pichler, consultants who typically focus on the current supply and demand for CF, the total global CF supply is estimated to be 114,100 metric tonnes (MT) in 2021. By 2023, global CF supply is expected to increase to 125,150 MT.
However, the situation is more complicated in China, where real, local production is more difficult to gauge. Tony and Dan assumed actual domestic output to be 55% of nameplate capacity, which puts 2021 total supply from within China at 19,250 MT, rising to 23,650 MT by 2023, with further expansions through 2026 to be expected.
The Future of Carbon Fiber (CF) Demand
CF is expected to see substantial growth in demand across several industries in the next five years. Three end markets in particular — wind, aerospace/defense, and infrastructure/energy — are expected to drive increased use of CF.
The wind energy industry alone is expected to almost double its CF demand, from 28,000 MT in 2021 to 54,000 MT in 2026. This will be driven by rapidly increasing installations of onshore and offshore wind capacity, particularly in China.
Similarly, aerospace/defense CF demand is expected to increase from 16,500 MT in 2021 to 29,100 MT in 2026, driven primarily by Boeing and Airbus. However, this increase is somewhat uncertain given that demand for the composites-intensive Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 is not expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2025.
In 2021, the global demand for all CF is 113,800 MT. By 2026 that figure is expected to increase to 180,400 MT. This creates a potential CF shortfall of 55,250 MT by 2026, with signs of this supply deficit appearing as soon as 2023 or 2024.
Next Steps
The question is whether or not this forecasted CF shortfall is an actual problem or just a potential problem. Carbon Fiber suppliers, seeing the same thing, have typically responded by adding capacity. However, it takes a lot of time and money to construct and commission a new carbon fiber line. In addition, some suppliers primarily serve the high-performance market and might be reluctant to announce new expansions.
In conclusion, the CF supply chain is in flux, and demand for CF is expected to rise in the next five years. This creates a potential CF shortfall of 55,250 MT by 2026, with signs of this supply deficit appearing as soon as 2023 or 2024. While CF suppliers have typically responded to such shortages by adding capacity, it remains to be seen how quickly and effectively they will do so in the current rapidly changing environment.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs):
Q: What is carbon fiber and where is it used?
A: Carbon fiber (CF) is a strong and lightweight material made from carbon fibers that are bundled together and woven into fabric. It is used in a variety of industries, including aerospace, defense, energy, and infrastructure, where high strength and low weight are important.
Q: What is the current state of CF supply?
A: The current supply of CF is uncertain, and the situation is more complicated in China where actual domestic output is difficult to gauge. However, the total global CF supply is estimated to be 114,100 metric tonnes (MT) in 2021, and is expected to increase to 125,150 MT by 2023.
Q: What is the future of CF demand?
A: CF is expected to see substantial growth in demand across several industries in the next five years, driven primarily by wind energy, aerospace/defense, and infrastructure/energy. The global demand for all CF is expected to increase from 113,800 MT in 2021 to 180,400 MT in 2026.
Q: Is there a potential CF shortfall in the coming years?
A: Yes, there is a potential CF shortfall of 55,250 MT by 2026, with signs of this supply deficit appearing as soon as 2023 or 2024. While CF suppliers have typically responded to such shortages by adding capacity, it remains to be seen how quickly and effectively they will do so in the current rapidly changing environment.
Q: What are the risks associated with a potential CF shortfall?
A: A CF shortfall could lead to production delays, increased costs, and a slowdown in the growth of industries that rely on CF. It could also create an opportunity for alternative materials to gain traction in the market.
